Summary: In a new study, researchers reported developing an algorithm that can use data provided by wearable sensors like heart rate, heart rate variability, and other changes to predict the risk of flares several weeks before they occur. Since, at present, there is no reliable way to predict flares so early, the finding is really exciting.
One of the new studies found that wearable devices like Apple Watch, Fitbit, Oura Ring, Samsung Galaxy Watch, or many other wearables can help predict IBD flares several weeks, or about 7 weeks before they occur. They can predict this risk by using a special algorithm analyzing data from sensors that are already there in the most commonly used devices.
The thing is that devices are becoming smarter, and now wearables have a whole lot of sensors, and they measure many things like heart rate, sleep quality, heart rate variation, stress level, respiration rate, blood oxygen concentration, and much more.
Now, researchers are looking at how data from these various sensors can be combined to predict the risk of various health conditions. One of the new studies published in the journal Gastroenterology found that this data can even help predict IBD flares.
There are more than three million adults living with IBD in the US. It’s an umbrella term used to describe the inflammatory disease of the gut, and Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis are the two most common types of IBD and account for the majority of IBD cases.
These conditions are challenging to manage and are characterized by periods of remission and flares. However, if there could be a reliable way of predicting the flares, individuals living with the condition may take medications and other preventive measures to prevent those flares.
Researchers at Mount Sinai conducted this new study. What is good about this study is that they used data from the sensors that are present in most modern wearables. They looked at the changes in the heart rate, resting heart rate, heart rate variability, step data, and blood oxygenation. By combining the data from these sensors, they could identify patterns that could predict flares several weeks before they occur.
Researchers say that there is a small change in the baseline value of these indicators, and these changes start happening about 7 weeks before flares occur.
This study was done in the US, and it included 309 adults from the US living with IBD (Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis).
IBD flares are highly unpredictable. At present, there is no known way to predict when symptoms will arise. Blood or stool tests before a flare may help, but that is not a practical way to detect flare risk.
Further, patients are not able to sense the issue until the flare has almost begun. They might have some abdominal disturbances, but it is quite challenging to say if they are due to upcoming flares. So, there are no advanced or early signs that can help predict a flare.
However, modern wearables are able to record even subtle changes in the body. When science combines data from multiple sensors, it can predict IBD flare reliably a few weeks before symptoms occur.
What is good about it is that it will provide ample time for patients and doctors. Medications, if taken early enough, can help prevent these flares.
So, now, what researchers need to do is just improve their algorithm to improve its accuracy. Moreover, researchers say that this approach can also be used to predict the risk of flares in other conditions like rheumatoid arthritis.
Over the years, the sensitivity and accuracy of a number of sensors will only improve. This will help further refine these algorithms. Further, the use of modern techniques like deep learning may also help enhance things. So, we are living in exciting times, and we might soon see the introduction of these features in most wearables, helping predict flares of chronic conditions and thus manage those conditions more effectively.
Frequently asked questions
What is an IBD flare?
IBD, or inflammatory bowel disease, is an umbrella term for inflammatory disease of the gut. Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis are its two most common types. These conditions swing between periods of remission and flares, when symptoms come back. Flares are highly unpredictable, and most patients cannot sense one coming until it has almost begun.
Can a Fitbit or smartwatch predict an IBD flare?
Yes. In a Mount Sinai study published in Gastroenterology, an algorithm read data from sensors already built into common wearables such as the Apple Watch, Fitbit, Oura Ring and Samsung Galaxy Watch. By combining heart rate, resting heart rate, heart rate variability, step counts and blood oxygen, it found patterns that signaled a flare several weeks before it started.
How early can a wearable warn of an IBD flare?
About 7 weeks ahead. The researchers found small shifts in the baseline values of heart rate, heart rate variability and the other sensor readings beginning roughly 7 weeks before a flare. The study followed 309 adults in the United States living with Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis.
Why does predicting an IBD flare early matter?
Today there is no reliable way to know when IBD symptoms will return. Blood or stool tests before a flare may help, but they are not a practical way to track flare risk. An early warning gives patients and doctors time to act, because medications taken early enough can help prevent a flare.
Source:
Hirten, R. P., Danieletto, M., Sanchez-Mayor, M., Whang, J. K., Lee, K. W., Landell, K., Zweig, M., Helmus, D., Fuchs, T. J., Fayad, Z. A., Nadkarni, G. N., Keefer, L., Suarez-Farinas, M., & Sands, B. E. (2025). Physiological Data Collected from Wearable Devices Identify and Predict Inflammatory Bowel Disease Flares. Gastroenterology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2024.12.024
Dr. Gurpreet Singh Padda, MD, MBA, MHP
