Summary: In a new study, researchers built an algorithm that reads data from wearable sensors to predict the risk of flares several weeks before they occur. It uses heart rate, heart rate variability, and other changes. Right now there is no reliable way to predict flares this early. So the finding is big news.
The study found that wearables like Apple Watch, Fitbit, Oura Ring, Samsung Galaxy Watch, and many others can help predict IBD flares several weeks ahead. That is about 7 weeks before they occur. A special algorithm does this. It reads data from sensors already built into the most common devices.
Devices keep getting smarter. Wearables now carry a whole lot of sensors. They track heart rate, sleep, shifts in heart rate, stress, breathing rate, blood oxygen, and much more.
Now researchers are looking at how to combine data from these sensors to predict the risk of many health problems. One new study published in the journal Gastroenterology found that this data can even help predict IBD flares.
More than three million adults in the US live with IBD. It is an umbrella term for inflammatory disease of the gut. Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis are the two most common types. They make up most IBD cases.
These conditions are hard to manage. They swing between calm periods (remission) and flares. If there were a reliable way to predict flares, people with the condition could take medicine and other steps to head them off.
Researchers at Mount Sinai ran this new study. The good part is that they used data from sensors found in most modern wearables. They looked at changes in heart rate, resting heart rate, heart rate variability, step data, and blood oxygen. By combining this data, they found patterns that could predict flares several weeks before they occur.
Researchers say there is a small shift in the baseline value of these readings. These shifts start about 7 weeks before flares occur.
The study was done in the US. It included 309 adults from the US living with IBD (Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis).
IBD flares are very hard to predict. Right now, there is no known way to tell when symptoms will come back. Blood or stool tests before a flare may help. But that is not a practical way to spot flare risk.
Also, patients cannot sense the problem until the flare has almost begun. They might have some belly upset. But it is hard to say if it comes from a coming flare. So there are no early warning signs that can help predict a flare.
Modern wearables, though, can record even small changes in the body. When science combines data from many sensors, it can reliably predict an IBD flare a few weeks before symptoms occur.
The good part is that it gives patients and doctors plenty of time. Medicine taken early enough can help prevent these flares.
So now researchers just need to sharpen their algorithm to make it more accurate. They also say this approach could predict flares in other conditions like rheumatoid arthritis.
Over the years, sensors will only get more sensitive and more accurate. That will help refine these algorithms. Newer methods like deep learning may help too. These are exciting times. We may soon see these features in most wearables. They could help predict flares of chronic conditions and manage those conditions better.
Frequently asked questions
What is an IBD flare?
IBD, or inflammatory bowel disease, is an umbrella term for inflammatory disease of the gut. Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis are its two most common types. These conditions swing between calm periods (remission) and flares, when symptoms come back. Flares are very hard to predict. Most patients cannot sense one coming until it has almost begun.
Can a Fitbit or smartwatch predict an IBD flare?
Yes. In a Mount Sinai study published in Gastroenterology, an algorithm read data from sensors already built into common wearables. These include the Apple Watch, Fitbit, Oura Ring and Samsung Galaxy Watch. It combined heart rate, resting heart rate, heart rate variability, step counts and blood oxygen. From that, it found patterns that signaled a flare several weeks before it started.
How early can a wearable warn of an IBD flare?
About 7 weeks ahead. The researchers found small shifts in the baseline values of heart rate, heart rate variability and the other sensor readings. These began roughly 7 weeks before a flare. The study followed 309 adults in the United States living with Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis.
Why does predicting an IBD flare early matter?
Today there is no reliable way to know when IBD symptoms will return. Blood or stool tests before a flare may help. But they are not a practical way to track flare risk. An early warning gives patients and doctors time to act, because medicine taken early enough can help prevent a flare.
Source:
Hirten, R. P., Danieletto, M., Sanchez-Mayor, M., Whang, J. K., Lee, K. W., Landell, K., Zweig, M., Helmus, D., Fuchs, T. J., Fayad, Z. A., Nadkarni, G. N., Keefer, L., Suarez-Farinas, M., & Sands, B. E. (2025). Physiological Data Collected from Wearable Devices Identify and Predict Inflammatory Bowel Disease Flares. Gastroenterology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2024.12.024
Dr. Gurpreet Singh Padda, MD, MBA, MHP
